Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.015009 0.016975 0.019102 0.021576 0.024374 0.027442 0.031063
2025-10-05 0.012246 0.015037 0.018315 0.022450 0.027533 0.033581 0.041335
2025-10-12 0.010606 0.013780 0.017721 0.022979 0.029820 0.038435 0.050131
2025-10-19 0.009484 0.012903 0.017349 0.023558 0.032025 0.043191 0.059085
2025-10-26 0.008377 0.011862 0.016574 0.023423 0.033147 0.046499 0.066297
2025-11-02 0.007537 0.011059 0.015994 0.023426 0.034369 0.049946 0.073907
2025-11-09 0.006721 0.010187 0.015202 0.023003 0.034877 0.052343 0.080127
2025-11-16 0.006219 0.009714 0.014925 0.023279 0.036393 0.056282 0.088928
2025-11-23 0.005674 0.009114 0.014389 0.023086 0.037137 0.059066 0.096127
2025-11-30 0.005366 0.008853 0.014341 0.023635 0.039066 0.063811 0.106810
2025-12-07 0.004831 0.008170 0.013558 0.022915 0.038851 0.065067 0.111825
2025-12-14 0.004433 0.007679 0.013039 0.022574 0.039216 0.067266 0.118564
2025-12-21 0.004001 0.007097 0.012332 0.021867 0.038921 0.068375 0.123601
2025-12-28 0.003878 0.007041 0.012517 0.022730 0.041446 0.074561 0.138213
2026-01-04 0.003711 0.006892 0.012523 0.023266 0.043416 0.079904 0.151730
2026-01-11 0.003566 0.006768 0.012559 0.023852 0.045516 0.085633 0.166445
2026-01-18 0.003333 0.006457 0.012227 0.023715 0.046233 0.088835 0.176570
2026-01-25 0.003139 0.006205 0.011981 0.023718 0.047210 0.092590 0.188075
2026-02-01 0.002909 0.005862 0.011535 0.023290 0.047296 0.094608 0.196243
2026-02-08 0.002780 0.005712 0.011449 0.023570 0.048817 0.099569 0.210844
2026-02-15 0.002610 0.005461 0.011144 0.023375 0.049343 0.102554 0.221541
2026-02-22 0.002531 0.005392 0.011199 0.023931 0.051478 0.109001 0.240172
2026-03-01 0.002330 0.005051 0.010668 0.023201 0.050811 0.109510 0.245878